Contraction Draft

During the last week, I finished reading The Book of Basketball by Bill Simmons. One of the concepts that he touched on more than once during the book was the fact that the NBA was currently over-expanded and that because of this, the overall product of league was diluted. He mentions that during the eighties, there were only 24 teams in the league. He often argues that the this was the most competitive era in basketball. Unfortunately, I was not old enough during this era to really follow basketball and so now the only way I can see this is through the stories of others or when I happen to catch a replay of a game on ESPN Classics.

So in an effort to see how it would affect the current league, I decided to conduct an experiment. What would happen if we cut 6 teams out of the league and re-distributed their players to the remaining teams. Would it make the overall product of the league better? Would it make the teams more even. Would some of the players even want any additions to their team. With most teams at a full roster, adding two players would almost certainly mean that players would have to be cut. Would teams want to cut these players?

The first item to be decided is which teams would we cut? My first thought was that the teams with the lowest attendance should go because they would be missed the least. Also, the attendance, the more likely a team would be to have financial troubles in the near future. Upon looking at the teams with the lowest attendance, there were a few teams that I didn't feel belonged because they were having relatively good years this year. For example, Memphis is currently the 11 best team in the league, yet they have one of the lowest attendance averages. Until this year, they have not been the best team and so it would make sense that their attendance figures would continue to rise.

With that in mind I decided to take the average of where a team ranked in overall record and attendance. The final number was what I called their average position. Looking at the final numbers, I noticed that the 6 teams that placed at the bottom were not in the top 20 in either category. Considering that determining which teams would be cut wasn't the end game and therefore, I felt this method was sound enough to proceed. The teams that finished last were:

Sacramento
New Jersey
Philadelphia
Indiana
Minnesota
Washington

After taking these teams and their players out of the league, I determined the order for the contraction draft. Since the overall point is to make the league more competitive, the first pick should go the last place team. That way, they would have a chance to improve greatly and the teams with better records could still add a solid role player but aren't going to get a star.

With out further delay is how the distribution draft played out. Teams are listed by their order in the draft and then with each teams first and second round draft pick.

Golden State: Danny Granger, Ryan Gomes
Detroit: Al Jefferson, Brendan Haywood
New York: Brooks Lopez, Mike Miller
Milwaukee: Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi
LA Clippers: Andre Iguodala, Allen Iverson (I figured this would be a good fit for the Answer)
Charlotte: Kevin Martin, Tyler Hansbrough
Chicago: Antawn Jamsion, Nick Young
Miami: Kevin Love, Ramon Sessions
Toronto: Caron Butler, Marreese Speights
Houston: Devin Harris, Beno Udrih
Oklahoma City: Jason Thompson, Samuel Dalembert
New Orleans: Thaddeus Young, Randy Foye
Phoenix: Troy Murphy, Terrance Williams
Portland: Jonny Flynn, Andray Blatche
San Antonio: Elton Brand, Mike Dunleavy
Utah: Roy Hibbert, Jason Kapono
Dallas: Gilbert Arenas, Corey Brewer
Orlando: Courtney Lee, Wayne Ellinton
Atlanta: Yi Jianlian, Sergio Rodriguez
Boston: Louis Williams, Jason Smith
Denver: Dahntay Jones, Willie Green
LA Lakers: Andres Nocioni, TJ Ford
Cleveland: Chris Dougas-Roberts, Jrue Holiday

So how did it turn out. I am fairly confident that every team would want to keep their first round draft pick. Not every one will keep their second round pick, but overall, I really feel that it would make the league more competitive. I will give a few examples of where I really feel that it paid off.

Oklahoma City: They get a big man with good length and great post moves, someone who has potential to contribute for a long time. Jason Thompson might never be a star, but he won't need to be if he's playing next to Kevin Durrant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook. For a backup, they get a defensive presence that will fortify their second unit. He can be a stopper.

Detroit: With a true low post presence, they will be allowed to balance out their offense.

New York: Brooks Lopez will be a good fit in D'antoni's system. Mike Miller gives a good three point threat with solid defensive abilities.

Utah: Roy Hibbert might not be an all-star, and might never be the top man on any team, but if he can provide interior defense with a variety of offensive low post moves, It would make Utah that much more difficult to guard.

San Antonio: Elton Brand would be a huge addition for San Antonio. When healthy, he's a double-double machine and he would prolong the career of Tim Duncan. Think of him as a very good upgrade from the other post players they have had, like Antonio McDyess.

There are two teams that I don't feel this would really benefit at all, and that happens to be LA Lakers and Orlando Magic. There rosters are fairly stacked and so they might not even want the drafted players.

Overall, I do feel that it would make the league more even and would allow for a more competitive product. Don't sit still though, tell me what you think.